The record · NBA
Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets: our pick
We called the Miami Heat at 57%, locked Oct 24, 4:00 PM ET, 1 hour before kickoff.
Final: Miami Heat 110–115 Charlotte Hornets. Wrong.
Why this pick?
Our 57% is the betting market's own price for the Miami Heat: the DraftKings line, with its margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 5.7 points toward the Miami Heat, and the spread went from -3.5 to -4.5.
Our last 5 graded calls on the Miami Heat: 4 right.
At 57%, a pick like this still loses about 43 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 24, 6:28 PM ET at Q1 5:12: Miami Heat 69% to win, called at 57%.
Call 57% Alert 69% at 5:12 - 1stLast live read 1% (0.0 - 4th)
- Our calls right
- 80%
- Calls graded
- 4 of 5
- Miami Heat avg margin
- -7.4
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Miami Heat's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat win chance | 57% | 62% |
| Miami Heat spread | -3.5 | -4.5 |
| Total | 229.5 | 227.5 |
- Pick locked: the Miami Heat at 57%.
- Market closed with the Miami Heat at 62%, 5.7 points toward our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q1 5:12: the Miami Heat 69% to win, called at 57%.
- Final: Miami Heat 110–115 Charlotte Hornets. Wrong.
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