The record · CFB
Kansas State at Arizona State: our pick
We called Kansas State at 53%, locked Oct 24, 1:46 PM ET, 1 hour before kickoff.
Final: Kansas State 17–28 Arizona State. Wrong.
Why this pick?
Our 53% is the betting market's own price for Kansas State: 8 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 1.7 points away from Kansas State.
Our last 3 graded calls on Kansas State: 2 right.
At 53%, a pick like this still loses about 47 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 24, 4:09 PM ET at Q1 10:05: Kansas State 73% to win, called at 53%.
Call 53% Alert 73% at Q1 10:05Last live read 1% (Q4 1:45)
- Our calls right
- 67%
- Calls graded
- 2 of 3
- Kansas State avg margin
- +1.0
Only 3 graded games on Kansas State so far.
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Kansas State's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas State win chance | 53% | 51% |
| Kansas State spread | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| Total | 52.5 | 51.5 |
- Pick locked: Kansas State at 53%.
- Market closed with Kansas State at 51%, 1.7 points away from our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q1 10:05: Kansas State 73% to win, called at 53%.
- Final: Kansas State 17–28 Arizona State. Wrong.
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