The record · CFB
Oregon at Illinois: our pick
We called Oregon at 79%, locked Oct 24, 1:01 PM ET, 1 hour before kickoff.
Final: Oregon 10–21 Illinois. Wrong.
Why this pick?
Our 79% is the betting market's own price for Oregon: 8 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
The market closed where we called it.
Our last 2 graded calls on Oregon: 1 right.
At 79%, a pick like this still loses about 21 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 24, 4:15 PM ET at Q2 2:29: Oregon 94% to win, called at 79%.
Call 79% Alert 94% at Q2 2:29Last live read 1% (Q4 2:07)
- Our calls right
- 50%
- Calls graded
- 1 of 2
- Oregon avg margin
- +0.5
Only 2 graded games on Oregon so far.
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Oregon's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Oregon win chance | 79% | 79% |
- Pick locked: Oregon at 79%.
- Market closed with Oregon at 79%, where we called it.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q2 2:29: Oregon 94% to win, called at 79%.
- Final: Oregon 10–21 Illinois. Wrong.
Fingerprint
c9220e43ab9347f150d4016b4379f9725eb15bdc6420c89b075f4811fc0e78ad