The record · CFB
BYU at UCF: our pick
We called BYU at 73%, locked Oct 24, 1:34 PM ET, 1 hour before kickoff.
Final: BYU 31–39 UCF. Wrong.
Why this pick?
Our 73% is the betting market's own price for BYU: 8 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 0.6 points toward BYU.
Our last 4 graded calls on BYU: 3 right.
At 73%, a pick like this still loses about 27 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 24, 4:05 PM ET at Q1 4:19: BYU 87% to win, called at 73%.
Call 73% Alert 87% at Q1 4:19Last live read 51% (Q4 0:09)
- Our calls right
- 75%
- Calls graded
- 3 of 4
- BYU avg margin
- +10.0
Only 4 graded games on BYU so far.
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: BYU's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| BYU win chance | 73% | 74% |
| BYU spread | -4.5 | — |
| Total | 43.5 | — |
- Pick locked: BYU at 73%.
- Market closed with BYU at 74%, 0.6 points toward our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q1 4:19: BYU 87% to win, called at 73%.
- Final: BYU 31–39 UCF. Wrong.
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