The record · CFB
Duke at Virginia: our pick
We called Virginia at 54%, locked Oct 23, 6:57 PM ET, less than an hour before kickoff.
Final: Duke 19–16 Virginia. Wrong.
Why this pick?
Our 54% is the betting market's own price for Virginia: 8 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
The closing line is recorded just before the start; the move since the call shows up then.
Our last 3 graded calls on Virginia: 1 right.
At 54%, a pick like this still loses about 46 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
No cash-out alert fired on this game.
- Our calls right
- 33%
- Calls graded
- 1 of 3
- Virginia avg margin
- -13.0
Only 3 graded games on Virginia so far.
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Virginia's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia win chance | 54% | — |
| Virginia spread | +1.5 | — |
| Total | 47.5 | — |
- Pick locked: Virginia at 54%.
- Kickoff.
- Final: Duke 19–16 Virginia. Wrong.
Fingerprint
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