The record · CFB
East Carolina at Memphis: our pick
We called Memphis at 80%, locked Oct 22, 7:01 PM ET, less than an hour before kickoff.
Final: East Carolina 34–41 Memphis. Right.
Why this pick?
Our 80% is the betting market's own price for Memphis: 8 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
The market closed where we called it.
Our last 4 graded calls on Memphis: 3 right.
At 80%, a pick like this still loses about 20 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 22, 11:17 PM ET at Q4 2:15: Memphis 91% to win, called at 80%.
Call 80% Alert 91% at Q4 2:15Last live read 52% (Q4 0:13)
- Our calls right
- 75%
- Calls graded
- 3 of 4
- Memphis avg margin
- +11.0
Only 4 graded games on Memphis so far.
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Memphis's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Memphis win chance | 80% | 80% |
- Pick locked: Memphis at 80%.
- Market closed with Memphis at 80%, where we called it.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q4 2:15: Memphis 91% to win, called at 80%.
- Final: East Carolina 34–41 Memphis. Right.
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